The Sunshine Sinkhole

So let me get this straight - Florida-Florida - the state that was supposed to be heaven’s waiting room, where retirees from New York, Jersey, Boston, Philly - you name it - go to ride out their golden years in flip-flops and Tommy Bahama shirts… and suddenly it looks like it's been sucker-punched in the housing market. Again.

This place used to be the crown jewel of retirement. According to the census, 1 in 5 retirees that moved during the pandemic ended up in the Sunshine Sinkhole. Why? Because of Low taxes, no snow, cheap houses, and early-bird specials that could feed you for three days. But now? The whole housing market is like a sunburned retiree after too many Mai Tais at a Villages tiki night. It’s like someone inflated it with hot air during COVID, and now it’s deflating with that long, awkward pfffffffffttttt sound. (air escaping effect)

The People who moved here thinking that they scored a slice of paradise are now looking around like, “Wait a second... did I just buy a stucco nightmare in a flood zone that costs me $6,000 a year in insurance?” And the house across the street? It’s been for sale for six months and just dropped another 30 grand. Yeah. Welcome to the Sunshine Sinkhole, folks.

 Let’s rewind for a second—because this whole mess didn’t come out of nowhere. Nah, it started back in the great pandemic panic of 2020. Everyone was losing their minds. “The virus is coming! The cities are doomed!” So naturally, every person over 55 with a pension and a paid-off house up north suddenly looked at Florida like it was Shangri-La. Cheap land, good weather, and hey—no one was making you wear a mask at the Publix.

So what happened? They piled in. Snowbirds, semi-retirees, full retirees, the whole gang. Bought up everything. And I mean everything. Sight unseen. Cash deals. No inspections. It was like The Price Is Right, but instead of guessing the price of a toaster, you were bidding 50 grand over asking on a condo in Sarasota. People were fighting for homes in The Villages, okay? The damn golf cart capital of the world turned into a gladiator arena for real estate.

Now fast forward to 2025 - and the hangover is brutal. The market? Oh, it’s wobbling like Uncle Harry after two bourbons. In January, Florida hit a record-breaking 172,209 homes on the market. That’s the most they’ve had in over a decade. Homes are stacking up like coupons in a retiree’s junk drawer.

Here’s some stats, Cape Coral? Up 25 percent. Naples? 29 percent. Fort Lauderdale, 27 percent. And Wauchula? Who even knew that place existed?! Their inventory’s up 33 percent. What are you building in Wauchula?! Retirement igloos?

But, It gets better. Because now these sellers are slashing prices like it’s a clearance rack at Macy’s. In Naples alone, almost 3,000 of the 8,000 homes listed have dropped their prices. In The Villages, where golf cart street races are legit, 290 homes out of 700 got price cuts. That’s almost half. You know what that means? Even the grandmas are negotiating now. “I’ll take the two-bed, two-bath, but only if you knock off twenty grand and throw in the washer-dryer.”

And here’s the kicker—these aren’t first-time buyers we’re talking about. This isn’t the 28-year-old couple looking for their starter home. This is Joe and Linda from Connecticut who sold their colonial, cashed out their IRA, and came to Florida thinking they were getting the dream. The shuffleboard. The sunshine. The peace and quiet. Instead, they got a HOA fee that just doubled and a Category 4 hurricane every six months knocking over their lawn flamingos.

Now let’s talk about interest rates—ohhh buddy. Mortgage rates are flirting with 7 percent. SEVEN. That’s not a rate, that’s a threat. That’s the bank looking at your 690 credit score and saying, “Nice try, Grandpa.” These older buyers, who grew up in the '80s thinking 13% was normal, now see 7% and say, “Yeah... but not for this shack.”

You want to borrow 400 grand to get your pastel-colored dream villa in Port St. Lucie? Great—just give up any idea of going out to dinner ever again. And forget those cruises. The only thing you’ll be cruising is the produce aisle on senior discount day.

So what are buyers doing? They're walking. Just bailing out of deals like they saw the HOA minutes and realized the community’s president is a lunatic. In January, 41,000 home sales fell through nationwide. And Florida? It lead the damn country in cancellations. Orlando had an 18 percent cancellation rate. Jacksonville? 17.8 percent. People are putting in offers, getting to the inspection, and going, “You know what? Let’s just keep renting in Boynton Beach.”

And it’s not just the rates, people. It’s everything. Insurance premiums are out of control. You’ve got retirees who moved here with a fixed income, thought they were done budgeting, and now they’re getting annual insurance quotes that look like they’re trying to cover the space station. It’s thousands more than they planned for. And it’s not like they can just “pick up more hours”—they’re retired! The only “work” they do is adjusting the sprinkler timer.

Plus, the HOA fees are going bananas. Ever since that condo collapse in Surfside, new building codes are coming down like a hammer. More assessments, more repairs, more “mandatory upgrades.” One guy in Tampa told me his condo board hit every unit with a $12,000 fee to “modernize the elevator.” He said are you kidding me? The guy’s 76. He said, “If it works for the next five years, I’m good!”

You wanna know who really got burned? The folks who moved down here between 2020 and 2022. The pandemic panic-buyers. The ones who cashed out their homes up north at peak value, bought high down here, and thought they were set. Now they’re sitting in homes that are worth less than what they paid, can’t refi because of the rates, can’t sell without eating a loss, and can’t even enjoy the damn place because their neighbor’s house across the street has been for sale for nine months with zero foot traffic.

It’s like showing up to a party that ended three hours ago. And there’s just warm cheese cubes, a broken stereo, and someone crying in the corner. That’s the Florida housing market right now.

But oh no, the experts are out here saying, “This isn’t a crash! It’s a natural correction.” Oh yeah? Tell that to the retiree in Venice who bought his dream home for $850K and now has an appraisal at $725K. “Natural correction?” That’s not a correction, that’s a slap with a leather glove and a note that says, “Thanks for playing.”

And meanwhile, places like Miami and Naples are still hanging on. You got homes going up in value just because they have a partial ocean view and granite countertops from 2004. That’s it. That’s the hook. As long as the rich Northeasterners keep thinking Florida’s some magical fountain of youth, you’ll still get people overpaying in those pockets. But everywhere else? It’s quiet. Too quiet.

And you know what’s really messed up? You still can’t rent. Yeah! That’s the one-two punch. You’d think with all these listings and price cuts, rent would follow. But nope. Rent’s still high. You got retirees sharing homes now. Like it’s college again. Splitting utility bills, taking turns mowing the lawn, and arguing over who used all the hot water.

So you can’t buy. Can’t rent. Can’t sell. But hey—at least the pickle ball court got resurfaced, right?

Let me be clear. I’m not trying to scare you out of Florida. I get it. The state has appeal. The beaches are great. The taxes are low. You don’t have to shovel your driveway ever again. And for a lot of retirees, it is still a dream. If you bought 15 years ago and paid it off? You’re golden. You’re sitting on a lanai sipping a cocktail thinking, “Eh, let the kids worry about the inheritance.”

But if you’re someone trying to buy in now? Or worse—someone who bought recently and feels the floor slipping out from under you? Then yeah... this market’s a bit of a wake-up call.

Because that idea that Florida real estate always goes up? Yeah, that’s a myth. Sometimes it goes up. Sometimes it goes sideways. And sometimes—like right now—it goes down just enough to remind you that real estate is a gamble. And in Florida? The dice are sweating.

Here’s how I see it: Florida’s market is gonna hobble through 2025 like a guy with bad knees and a bum hip. The overpriced markets will bleed a little. The panic-sellers will start dropping prices just to get out. And the smart buyers—the ones who waited this whole mess out? They’ll swoop in when the rates drop back into the 5s and pick off the good deals.

But until then, this is a stare-off. Sellers think they can hold the line. Buyers know they don’t have to rush. And the agents? The poor agents—they’re out here polishing up listings like used cars. “Brand-new roof! Freshly painted! Just ignore the fact that it’s been on the market since Halloween!”

So here’s the bottom line, my fellow boomers and Gen X legends out there: Florida’s still got sunshine. Still has charm. But the market? Right now, it’s a tricky beast. You gotta move smart. You gotta negotiate like your grandkids are watching. And if someone tries to sell you a “deal” in a high-risk flood zone with an HOA that reads like a criminal record? Walk away. Better yet—run. In those New Balance sneakers.

Because paradise is great and all… but not when it’s underwater, overpriced, and falling apart one special assessment at a time.

Florida. It ain’t a crash. But it sure as hell ain’t the dream they sold us, either. So hold onto your bingo cards, clip those insurance coupons, and maybe - just maybe - wait for the next price cut before you make that offer.